✈Wizz Air – Sarajevo base analysis

Wizz Air has announced a new base at Sarajevo – its second in Bosnia and Herzegovina after Tuzla. It will start on 20 May and will initially have nine routes, all twice- or three-weekly, for a total of 21-weekly. The routes focus on Bosnian VFR, especially those to Germany, Switzerland, and Scandinavia.

None of Wizz Air’s new routes will have direct competition, and only two will have indirect competition from Sarajevo.  Most will come from itself at Tuzla, raising the question of whether any consolidation will happen.

In 2019, round-trip point-to-point demand – before stimulation in most cases – was approximately as follows, based on booking data from OAG Traffic Analyzer:

• London: 19,000
• Amsterdam: 16,000
• Munich: 15,000
• Copenhagen: 14,000
• Paris: 14,000
• Brussels: 12,000
• Gothenburg: 7,000
• Düsseldorf and Cologne: 9,000 (indirect only)
• Basel: 3,000 (rising to over 30,000 with Zurich, ~92km away, is included; Zurich ended in 2019)

The above figures exclude leakage to Tuzla (~110km away) and demand that goes by coach. Coach demand was always big business from the country

Wizz Air’s new Sarajevo base will initially have one aircraft which will operate six sectors each day from 06:10 until 23:00. Wizz Air also ensures maximum aircraft utilization, with very high aircraft usage. On the average Sarajevo based aircraft is flying 13,5 hours per day (13,5 hours is only the air time, when aircraft is in the flight, does not include taxing and other airport operations. 

Multiple markets have been served from Sarajevo in the past decade:

• Amsterdam by BH Airlines until 2012
• Charleroi by TUI Belgium in 2017
• Copenhagen by BH Airlines, Norwegian, and SAS. Two carriers were on it in most years and it ended in 2019
• Gothenburg by BH Airlines until 2011 and then Norwegian in 2019
• London-Luton by FlyBosnia in 2019 and 2020
• Zurich by BH Airlines until 2013 and then Swiss between 2015 and 2019

Belgium, France, and the UK will once again be connected with Bosnia and Herzegovina. Sarajevo and Bosnia and Herzegovina will benefit on many levels by having direct air link with London, Paris and Brussels.

Wizz Air previously served London-Luton from Tuzla.  It ended in 2017 and had an estimated SLF of 74%, based on 20,159 passengers and 27,360 seats. The traffic shows how well markets can be stimulated, with London demand from Sarajevo and Tuzla exceeding 38,000 in 2017 – almost double the year before. Of course, this does not mean that SLF, fares, and sector revenue will always be sufficient, so the need for corrective measures.

Sarajevo Airport incentive for airline base

Sarajevo International Airport incentive requirement for airlines to open base at the airport (the tender was opened on October 08. 2020, and closed 30 days latter).

• In the first stage, the base is set up for two aircraft, with the option of increasing number of aircraft, as available capacities increase at Sarajevo International Airport or when other conditions are fulfilled.
• The aircraft types must have the capacity of 150 passengers or more
• The base of the airline carrier is set up for the period from 2021 until 2023.

Wizz Air has opened its base at Sarajevo with one Airbus 320 with nine new routes from Sarajevo, even though requirement for winning the tender was two aircraft. Wizz Air was the only company applying for the incentive, giving it stronger negotiation position. In the first year of the airlines base operations at Sarajevo Airport the airline will strengthen its position paving the road for summer of 2022, when the aviation sector is expecting full rebound from the pandemic. In summer timetable of 2022, we can expect second aircraft to be based at Sarajevo Airport with additional destinations introduced. Underserved market from Sarajevo with indirect traffic in 2019 with at least 8000 one-way passengers are : Rome, Barcelona, Milan, Hamburg, Oslo, Stockholm, Helsinki, Berlin, Frankfurt, Dusseldorf, Geneva,  Athens, Skopje, Antalya, Izmir, Ankara, Bucharest, Warsaw, and Tel Aviv.

With second A320 being based in Sarajevo, Wizz Air has high probability to start following routes:

Wizz Air network from Sarajevo in summer of 2022 could look like this:

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